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HOW TO MAKE MONEY TRADING THE FINANCIAL MARKETS.

I never knew that i could one day develop a trading strategy that works in any financial market be it Forex, Commodities, Shares, Stocks, Crypto currencies, Binary options, and Bonds.. But in the end it worked out because i was persistent and never gave up.

Below is my consistent 4 Months Forex Trading History. It goes to show that patience and discipline leads to consistency which then leads to steady growth and desired results. 

The forex market offers many opportunities for both profit and loss. In order to have a chance at creating regular profits, traders need to choose a strategy and stick to it for consistent trading results.You to can be consistent and make money with any of these 5 trading strategies.






 Below is also my verified performance on myfxbook.com which is a third party platform that verifies performance on any verified trading account worldwide.


A 100% return in a month trading forex.





                              


When Not to Trade Forex.

Currency exchange market is known as the market that is open 24 hours a day, but this doesn’t mean you have to be up all day and night. While the search for the ideal trading method or system takes up a large portion of a trader's research time, it may be worth noting that, while these are important elements of trading, there is one element which is arguably even more important - knowing
when not to trade.

Most traders that have become successful will tell you that their best decisions do not revolve around when to trade, but rather when not to trade. Important thing to understand is that “thin” or inactive market not only offers less movement to profit on but also comes with higher spreads as the liquidity is lower. It must be noted that you can (in certain occasions) make money when there is little activity in the market, but the chances tend to be smaller and it is trickier.

The personal times that you shouldn’t trade can really be summed up as times when you are out of sync with your normal body rhythm. These are times where your emotions or environment can negatively affect the way you trade, and can seriously hamper the likelihood of a successful trade. Trading and staring at your charts all the time, bring out the worst fear and greed emotions out of people and you may end up losing all your money. We are all human. And if we follow the markets all the time, it is super easy to  get emotional about our losses, and just to prove that we are not a loser, get into another wrong trade.

Experienced traders know when to "sit on their hands." They realize that trading during times that do not suit their trading style can cut deeply into profits, or create a sizable deficit that will need to be regained. New traders, often in their enthusiasm, begin to trade more as losses mount. Instead of stepping back, they step into the market trying to make back losses. Trading when conditions warrant it is prudent, but it becomes a problem when a trader begins to try to find more trades to make up for losses. Often these trades are outside of the trading plan and are low-probability trades, based on hope and not on solid analysis.

It is important to be aware of what is occurring now in the market, but also to be able to transition our strategies to accommodate changing market conditions. This can be done by changing strategies to suit the current environment, or a longer or shorter time frame can be looked at to help us gauge whether we should be trading or not. Traders must know their trading plan and trading systems, and know under what type of conditions they perform well and perform poorly. When conditions arise where they are likely to perform poorly, traders must exercise discipline and cease trading.

What is Money Management?

Although you may think the title of Money Management is pretty clear and easy to implement – how to manage your money and invest wisely, it is slightly more than that. It is the educated process of how you save, invest, budget and spend domestic income. This can also fall on overseeing money usage for a business too.

Everyone in some form or another practices money management in day-to-day life, whether in their personal capacities or with investment management such as trading forex and CFDs successfully.
Trading forex and CFDs successfully does require discipline. You’ll need a proper knowledge of the basic elements that are vital if you are expecting long-term gains from this industry.

Inexperience is possibly the main reason for traders losing money in forex and emotional trading.

Neglecting your money management principles may as well as increases risk and decreases your reward.

As forex is extremely volatile at the best of times, therein lies an inherent risk, and having correct money management skills are essential when entering the markets.


Risk Management

When entering in to a forex or CFD trade, there needs to be a certain understanding, that you will enter risky situations and accept this as a prerequisite for leveraged trading. There are many risks when trading, however, there are various ways to reduce these risks.

While your profits are generally connected to the risks, here are a few principles:
  • Practice position sizing
  • Recognize your trading risks
  • Analyze and evaluate those risks
  • Establish solutions to reduce those risks
  • Apply and manage those solutions on a constant basis
Position sizing can be approached in a few ways, as simple to as complex as you choose, as long as it is best suited to your platform. This way you are able to easily manage both the losing trades and the winning ones. There are three models we can follow:

 

Fixed lot Size

Great way for beginners to start their trading careers. This means that traders will trade with the same position size, probably small. Lots can be changed during the trades according to how the account increases or decreases during the trading period. The account size is important when starting out, keep it small and use a leverage of 2:1, this way you can steadily grow potential profits over time.

 

Equity Percent

The idea behind Equity Percent is based on the size of your position based on the percentage change in equity. It is best to determine the percentage of equity for every position and this will determine and allow for growth of equity in relation to position size. One can always increase the percentage of equity used for every trade, but it is not without mention, that the higher the profit potential, the higher the risk.

What is a safe percent of equity to trade with?
It is often advised to trade with a smaller percentage of equity such as 1% or 2% that equates to 50:1 leverage per trade also allowing you to stay in your position for a longer period of time. Simply put, keep the size of your trades proportional to your equity, if you enter into losses, the position size is reduced preserving the account from depleting to a zero balance too rapidly. One can also reduce the size of the initial trade when you enter a losing streak to minimize the equity damage.
Remember that breaking even after losses takes more time than losing the same amount.

Advanced Equity percent with stop loss

The methodology behind this technique is to limit each trade to a set up a portion of your total account equity, this is often between 2-10%. This method differs from Fixed Ratio in that it is usedin trading options and futures and helps you increase your exposure to the market while protecting your accumulated profits.

Three Types of Forex Analysis

The three types of Forex analysis most commonly used by traders are:
  1. Fundamental analysis,
  2. Technical analysis,
  3. Sentiment analysis.
While some Forex traders swear by one or another, the best among them are able to use a combination of these Forex analysis methods.

Each Forex trader has a different personality and trading style, but the most important thing in markets is to be informed.

We've separately explored each of the three types of Forex analysis and offered indicators to help you create a trading strategy that lets you combine the best of each.

Let’s dive into each type of analysis in more detail.

1. Fundamental Analysis

Timeframe: Long term.

Trading Tools Required: Forex news Calendar.

The first type of Forex analysis is fundamental analysis.
Fundamental analysis allows traders to look at a Forex currency pair and analyze the news behind the economy to which it belongs.

Any economic, political or even social structure within that economy all have an effect on the supply and demand of the country’s currency.

Think of it in the way that if a country’s economy is strong, then currency demand in order to invest will also be high and price will rise as a result.

The most important piece of fundamental news to Forex markets, is monetary policy and how a central bank’s decision to hike or lower interest rates will affect demand.

Almost all of the most important Forex news releases that you find on an economic calendar will have an effect on monetary policy and fundamental analysis requires you to pay attention.
Just be aware that fundamental analysis alone will never be a determining factor for short term moves and must therefore be considered only with the larger picture in mind.

 

Forex News Indicator

To trade fundamental analysis successfully, you're going to require access to a Forex news portal.
This is a simple, yet effective Forex news indicator that has been designed to keep things as brief as possible for traders.

Forex traders know that the actual number released isn’t the most important factor behind whether price moves up or down.

There are so many other factors such as what’s already been priced in, market positioning and overall sentiment.

For this reason, our Forex news indicator is designed to inform you, without overwhelming you with unnecessary distractions you’d find on a classic economic calendar.

 

2. Technical Analysis

Timeframe: Short term, long term.
Trading Tools Required: Technical indicators.

The second type of Forex analysis, is technical analysis.

Technical analysis is the art of looking for patterns on a price chart in order to make predictions on future moves.

Technical analysis is all about finding places to enter and exit trades with the highest probability of success.

In the end, all that price charts show us, is human behavior.

As I’m sure you well know by now, human beings are creatures of habit and will repeat past behavior in often predictable ways.

It's here that technical analysis allows us to find patterns on a chart that show where traders are likely to look to enter and exit their trades in the future.

One drawback to using technical analysis in your trading is that it’s a highly subjective form of analysis where two traders can come to opposite conclusions from the same chart.

This is where the use of technical indicators can help remove some of that subjectivity, at least from a risk management perspective.

 

Technical Indicators

If you’re going to use technical analysis within your trading, then indicators will support your decision-making process.

We have a range of technical indicators to help you make smart, high probability trading decisions based on the patterns on your charts.

There are a huge range of technical indicators available and with time placed in testing, a number of indicators can become real assets to your trading strategy.

Even if you consider yourself a price action trader, we have a number of technical indicators that support this trading style.

Indicators help guide traders by removing the subjectivity that a simple candlestick price chart shows.
From indicators that help draw horizontal support/resistance lines, through to trend lines and even Forex market volume, there’s an indicator to assist all trading styles.

 

 

3. Sentiment Analysis

Timeframe: Short term.
Trading Tools Required: Sentiment indicators.

The third type of Forex analysis is sentiment analysis.

Forex sentiment analysis lets traders evaluate whether that particular market is net short or net long.
If you can understand how the rest of the market is positioned, then you’re able to make decisions based on what you expect them to be forced into doing next.

Sentiment analysis is an often-overlooked form of market analysis that when used correctly alongside the fundamental and technical, can give you a real profitable edge.

Sentiment analysis is most often used by contrarian Forex traders who want to take a position in the opposite direction to how the overall market is positioned.

This is because if you know that a particular market is for example 90% long, then the traders’ only option to close out those positions, is to sell.

Supply/demand would dictate that price would be forced down, as only sellers remain.

 

Sentiment Indicators

If you’re looking to apply sentiment analysis to your overall trading strategy, you’re going to need data.

By using the SSI indicator to determine whether a market is overall long or short, then you’re able to take advantage when their positions must be closed.

The trend may be your friend, but you most certainly don’t want to be the last one off the trend.

By using sentiment analysis indicators, you can make sure you’re not caught out as the last one holding a directional position.

 

Comparing the Three Types of Forex Analysis

We’ve compiled the information above into a handy table for you to compare each of the three types of Forex analysis.

Fundamental Analysis              - Longterm.          -News.
Technical Analysis                   - Short term.         -Longterm.       -Indicators.
Sentimental Analysis               - Short term.                                  -Indicators.

Based on the data in the table, you can choose the type of analysis that is more convenient for you.

Bringing the Three Types of Forex Analysis Together

Forex traders are always going to have a preference for one type of Forex market analysis over another.

While that’s perfectly okay and we encourage you to use what works for your particular trading strategy, the best traders are able to combine elements of all three.

Use fundamental analysis to check the big picture economic direction for a long-term bias, follow it up with a short-term technical analysis view to pinpoint a sharper entry, and finally consider market sentiment to make sure you don’t get caught out by the changing tide.

We've all heard the saying that information is power.

So don’t leave yourself in the dark when information that could help you make money, or more importantly stop you from losing money, is right in front of your eyes.

Sentiment Analysis

In the long run, valuations may drive stock prices, but in the short term it is market sentiment that moves prices. This can create investment opportunities for long term investors to find attractive entry points, and for active traders to both enter and exit positions.

Market sentiment analysis is an evolving technique which can be effectively used to compliment fundamental, quantitative and technical analysis. Sentiment analysis is also one of the more successful methods of including the effects of market psychology in a trading strategy. Empirical evidence suggests that investor sentiment is one of the most reliable indicators of future price movements.

Market sentiment is a qualitative measure of the attitude and mood of investors to financial markets in general, and specific sectors or assets in particular. Positive and negative sentiment drive price action, and also create trading and investment opportunities for active traders and long-term investors.

It could be described as the aggregated public opinions, views, feelings, mood, or outlook that make up the market psychology at any point in time. Because market sentiment cannot be exactly defined or measured, there is no specific correct or incorrect way to conduct sentiment analysis. Nevertheless, there are ways to use and combine other indicators that reflect market sentiment.



How emotions affect the stock market

In the short-term markets are driven by emotion – fear and greed in particular. Traders and investors are often driven by one form of psychological need or another. The fear of missing out, FOMO, can cause investors to pay prices for an asset that have no basis in reality. In that case they are not buying because the asset is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. During bear markets, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.


These are both examples of how emotions can force investors to make decisions that aren’t rational. It also shows why major market highs and lows are usually accompanied by extreme levels of positivity and negativity. Sentiment is highest just before major market tops, and lowest just before major market bottoms. By using sentiment analysis, investors can attempt to determine when the market is being driven by emotion rather than by rational decision making. They can pick up changes in sentiment before there is any news to explain the behaviour of stock prices.

 

Market sentiment indicators and how market sentiment can be tracked

As mentioned, there is no one specific way to measure market sentiment. However, there are quite a few indicators and metrics that can be used to give us a good idea of how participants view the outlook for markets.

CNN's Fear and Greed Index Explained

CNN's Fear and Greed Index (FGI) measures investor emotions of fear and greed on a daily, weekly, monthly, and yearly basis. Too much fear can drive stock prices too low, while greed can raise prices too high. This index can serve as a tool for making sound investments.



 


Understanding the Fear and Greed Index
Some skeptics dismiss the index as a sound investment tool as it encourages a market timing strategy rather than a buy and hold strategy.

While it's true that most investors should avoid trying to time the market to score short term gains, the index may be helpful in deciding when to enter the market.2 To do that, you’ll want to consider timing your investment entry point when the index tips toward fear.

In this way, you will be imitating no less an authority than billionaire Warren Buffett, who has famously stated that he doesn’t merely like to buy stocks when they’re low; he wants to buy them when they are at their lowest: “The best thing that happens to us is when a great company gets into temporary trouble… We want to buy them when they're on the operating table."

Behavioral Finance and the Fear and Greed Index

While the Fear and Greed Index might sound like a fun investment metric, there’s a strong case to be made for its merit. Consider, for example, the fascinating—and perhaps wacky—research that has gone into the foundations of a related field known as behavioral finance. For example, some scientists have studied how often rats press a bar in hopes of getting a reward as a measure of human fear and greed.

The real turning point for behavioral finance came in 1979, when psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky developed “prospect theory,” which explains how the same person can be both risk averse and risk taking, depending on whether a decision seems more likely to lead to a gain or a loss.4 Since we generally prefer to avoid a loss (we're "loss averse"), we will accept more risk to avoid a loss then we will to realize a gain. This behavior predominates when the Fear and Greed Index tilts toward fear.

Market Breadth

Whether you’re day trading or making long-term investment decisions, it’s important to know what the markets are doing. Often this is done with market indexes, such as the S&P 500 or the Russell 1000.

But these values don’t always give you the whole picture, and oftentimes they don’t. That’s why smart traders use market breadth indicators.


Let’s say you look at the Dow 30, and you see that it’s up 1.4%. So you conclude that the market has upward momentum for the day. The reality, however, could be that only a handful of stocks are pushing up the index.

The majority of stocks in the index could actually be in the red for the day. So the index doesn’t always give you a complete picture of what the market is doing.

A market breadth indicator is a technical study that lies on top of or below a chart. It considers the number of securities advancing relative to the number declining in the index.

We say that there is negative market breadth if more equities in the index are declining than advancing. This situation could occur even though the overall index is up.

And there is positive market breadth when the opposite situation is occurring. In this situation, more assets are advancing than declining, regardless of what the overall index is doing.

Some market breadth indicators look at volume, too. These are important technical tools. Why? Because price changes that are connected to increased volume are more important than those that occur during times of low volume.

Why It’s Important to Understand Market Breadth

Market breadth tools provide a different way of analyzing the equity markets that other technical indicators can’t. To make informed trading decisions, you need to understand the market’s movements.

If a market pull back or upturn is broad-based, it’s less likely to be short-lived. A market breadth indicator can tell you if the movement is the result of just a few stocks. It can also tell you if it is the result of overall market movements.

Bears are considered to be in control of the stock market’s momentum when there is negative market breadth. This is the case regardless of what the index reads. And bulls are in control when there’s positive market breadth.

By using market breadth indicators, you can discover weaknesses and strengths in the price action of an index. Such detailed information is not detectable simply by watching a chart alone.

 

Examples of Market Breadth Indicators

There are several market breadth indicators. Some use volume, while others don’t. Some indicators look at securities that reach certain milestones, while others analyze several variables.

Market breadth indicators are frequently used in conjunction with other technical analysis tools to more fully evaluate price action.

 New Highs-Lows Index

This technical study looks at assets reaching 52-week highs. It compares them to other assets in the index hitting 52-week lows. A figure less than 50% means that more assets are hitting 52-week lows compared to assets doing the opposite. This is generally regarded as bearish territory.
Some traders take 30% to be a sell signal and 70% to be a buy signal.

 Advance-Decline Index

The advance-decline index is usually referred to as the AD line. The indicator computes a total of the difference between the number of declining and advancing components of an index. The result is known as net advances.
The more components that participate in a trend, the stronger the overall movement. The opposite is also true.

S&P 500 200-Day Index

This indicator shows the number of stocks in the S&P index that are currently trading above the index’s 200-day moving average. Anything above 50% shows broad market strength. The higher the number, the more overbought the market is considered.
If the figure drops below 30%, it’s considered a bullish signal. Thus, the S&P 500 200-day index can be used in a similar fashion as the new highs-lows index.

Cumulative Volume Index (CVI)

The cumulative volume index determines if money is coming into the market or moving out of it. The way the CVI is calculated is pretty simple:
Advancing stocks – declining stocks + previous period’s CVI

When using the CVI, you want to try to spot areas of divergence. This is when an index’s trend doesn’t match the indicator’s trend. When this situation occurs, it’s likely that the index will correct itself. It will follow the direction the CVI is pointing in.

Arms Index

The arms index is sometimes referred to as the trading index (TRIN). This one is an oscillator that works best in short timeframes. It uses the advance-decline index we looked at earlier and divides it by the advance-decline volume ratio.

The calculation of TRIN is straightforward:

Advances are the number of equities in the index that closed in positive territory during the day’s session. Declines are of course the opposite.

Advancing volume is the total volume that advancing stocks put on the board. And declining volume is the total volume from declining stocks.

The TRIN ratio will stay above 1.0 if declining stocks are the primary source of volume. On the other hand, if advancing stocks are the principal source, the ratio will stay under 1.0.

Most traders view a TRIN ratio of less than 1.0 to be a buy signal. A figure more than 1.0 is considered to be a sell signal.

High-Low Index

DEFINITION of High-Low Index

The high-low index compares stocks that are reaching their 52-week highs with stocks that are hitting their 52-week lows. The high-low index is used by investors and traders to confirm the prevailing market trend of a broad market index, such as the Standard and Poor’s 500 index (S&P 500)

Example of the High-Low Indicator



Image depicting an example of the high-low index.


BREAKING DOWN High-Low Index

The high-low index is simply a 10-day moving average of the record high percent indicator, which divides new highs by new highs plus new lows. The record high percent indicator is calculated as follows: 



Record High Percent=New HighsNew Highs+New Lows×100\begin{aligned} \text{Record High Percent} = \frac{ \text{New Highs} }{ \text{New Highs} + \text{New Lows} } \times 100 \end{aligned}
Investors consider the high-low index to be bullish if it is positive and rising, and bearish if it is negative and falling. Since the index can be volatile on a day-to-day basis, market technicians generally apply a moving average on the data to smooth out the daily swings. This helps generate more reliable signals.

Interpreting the High-Low Index

A high-low index above 50 means more stocks are reaching 52-week highs than reaching 52 lows. Conversely, a reading below 50 shows that more stocks are making 52-week lows compared to stocks making 52-week highs. Therefore, investors and traders are generally bullish when the index rises above 50 and bearish when it declines below 50. Typically, readings above 70 indicate that the market is trending higher, while a reading below 30 suggests that the market is in a downtrend. Investors should also be aware that If the market is trending strongly, the high-low index can give extreme readings for a prolonged period.

Trading with the High-Low Index

Many traders add a 20-day moving average to the high-low index and use it as a signal line to enter a trade. The index generates a buy signal when it crosses above its moving average, and a sell signal when it crosses below its moving average. Traders should filter the signals generated by the high-low index with other technical indicators. For example, a trader might require the relative strength index (RSI) to be above zero when the index crosses above its 20-day moving average to confirm upward momentum.
The high-low index can also be used to form a bullish or bearish bias. For instance, if the indicator is above 50, a trader may decide to trade on the long side of the market only. For further reading, see: How to trade the US 30(Dow Jones Industrial Avereage.)

Risk-On Risk-Off

Risk-on risk-off is an investment setting in which price behavior responds to and is driven by changes in investor risk tolerance. Risk-on risk-off refers to changes in investment activity in response to global economic patterns. 

During periods when risk is perceived as low, the risk-on risk-off theory states that investors tend to engage in higher-risk investments. When risk is perceived to be high, investors have the tendency to gravitate toward lower-risk investments.

Understanding Risk-On Risk-Off

Investors' appetites for risk rise and fall over time. At times, investors are more likely to invest in higher-risk instruments than during other periods, such as during the 2009 economic recovery period. The 2008 financial crisis was considered a risk-off year, when investors attempted to reduce risk by selling existing risky positions and moving money to either cash positions or low/no-risk positions, such as U.S. Treasury bonds. 

Not all asset classes carry the same risk. Investors tend to change asset classes depending on the perceived risk in the markets. For instance, stocks are generally considered to be riskier assets than bonds. Therefore, a market where stocks are outperforming bonds is said to be a risk-on environment. When stocks are selling off and investors run for shelter to bonds or gold, the environment is said to be risk-off. 


Risk Sentiment

While asset prices ultimately detail the risk sentiment of the market, investors can often find signs of changing sentiment through corporate earnings, macroeconomic data, global central bank action and statements, and other factors. 

Risk-on environments are often carried by a combination of expanding corporate earnings, optimistic economic outlook, accommodative central bank policies, and speculation. We can also assume that an increase in the stock market is a sign that risk is on. As investors feel the market is being supported by strong influential fundamentals, they perceive less risk about the market and its outlook. 

Conversely, risk-off environments can be caused by widespread corporate earnings downgrades, contracting or slowing economic data, uncertain central bank policy, a rush to safe investments, and other factors. Just like the stock market rises relating to a risk on environment, a drop in the stock market equals a risk off environment. That's because investors want to avoid risk and are averse to it. 

 

Returns and Risk-On Risk-Off

As the perceived risk rises in the markets, investors jump from risky assets and pile into high-grade bonds, U.S. Treasury bonds, gold, cash, and other safe havens. While returns on these assets are not expected to be excessive, they provide downside protection to portfolios during times of distress.
When risks subside in the market, low-return assets and safe havens are dumped for high-yielding bonds, stocks, commodities, and other assets that carry elevated risk. As overall market risks stay low, investors are more willing to take on portfolio risk for the chance of higher returns.

Bonds

A bond is a type of debt instrument issued and sold by a government, local authority or company to raise money. Investors who buy bonds are paid interest, which for bonds is called a “coupon”.

The entity borrows the funds for a predetermined amount of time over which interest must be paid. At maturity, there is a final interest payment and return of principal. The interest rate is determined by the size of the coupon and the price of the bond at purchase. If the bond is held to maturity, it also represents the rate of return on the investment.

Bonds are normally issued at par values of $100 or $1,000. Its actual market price will be dependent on some combination of its duration or time until maturity, credit quality, coupon rate, and the future anticipated direction of interest rates.

The borrowed funds are typically used for capital investment projects and to fund operational and/or financial activities, such as inventory needs or to refinance current debt. Bond purchasers are commonly referred to as debtholders or creditors.

Most corporate and government bonds are traded on public exchanges. Some, however, are traded on over-the-counter markets, where buyers and dealers exchange securities without regulatory oversight from an exchange.

 

Types of Bonds

Fixed-rate bonds – The most common type of bond, with a coupon that remains fixed throughout the life of the bond. Bond coupons can also escalate in value throughout the life of the bond. This extends its duration, given it pushes more of the cash flow to be paid out at a later date, and increases its interest rate risk.

Zero-coupon bonds – Pays no interest, but generally issued at a discount to par value (the extent of such depends on a similarly priced coupon bond), with price appreciation common leading up to expiration. The full principal amount is paid at maturity. Zero-coupon bonds, both fixed-rate and inflation-protected, are issued by the US government. These are typically called “strips”, as the coupons are stripped out and can be traded separately from the bond itself. Given the higher duration of these bonds, they are more volatile than regular coupon bonds.

Floating rate or inflation-indexed bonds – Bonds tied to some reference rate, such as a specific LIBOR rate plus a spread, or tied to a measure of domestic inflation. Inflation and interest rate volatility are two common risks associated with fixed-rate bonds. To account for this, some offerings will provide protection against these risks by offering floating (or variable) rate bonds. Coupon rates are typically recalculated every 1-12 months. The UK was the first government to issue inflation-indexed bonds in the 1980s. The US issued its own inflation-protected securities (“TIPS”) beginning in 1997.

High-yield bonds – Also known as “junk bonds”. This distinction includes bonds with a credit rating below BBB- on the S&P and Fitch scale and Baa3 on the Moody’s scale. The credit quality of these bonds is lower due to higher levels of financial risk that raises the issuer’s risk of insolvency. Investors expect to be compensated for taking on higher risk. Therefore these bonds are considered to be “high yield” relative to an investment-grade bond.

Municipal bonds – Bonds issued by a city, state, province, or other local government. Individuals are often incentivized to invest in municipal bonds through their tax-free structures. (However, this is not always true and depends on the jurisdiction.)

Convertible bonds – Under certain conditions, a debtholder can convert a bond to a certain number of shares of the issuer’s common stock. Because they combine debt and equity characteristics, they are considered hybrid securities.

Indexed bonds – Bonds linked to a certain business indicator (i.e., net income) or macroeconomic statistic (e.g., GDP). This structure is chosen for companies that want to have greater control over their cash flow by matching business performance with the payout of its bonds. Some municipal bonds, known as revenue bonds, are indexed to the revenue generated from the project the bond proceeds funded.

Asset-backed securities (ABS) – Fixed-income instruments where interest and principal payments are secured by the cash flows of other assets. These can include mortgage-backed securities (MBS), collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), student loans, credit card receivables, airplane leases, among various other assets. The individual components to ABS are illiquid and generally infeasible to sell individually, hence the need for securitization.

Investors look at ABS as an alternative source of fixed-income investment and diversification. Assets are pooled and no single asset is generally responsible for having an outsized impact on its valuation. Issuers often lean toward the ABS structure because the process of securitization allows them to move the underlying assets off their balance sheets and transfer the accompanying risk to a counterparty (the investor).

Covered bonds – Bonds backed public or private assets, such as mortgages. Covered bonds differ from ABS in that the assets stay on the issuer’s balance sheet.

Climate or green bonds – Bonds issued by governments or corporations to raise funds for climate change mitigations or environmental preservation initiatives.

Mezzanine debt – Bonds, loan debt, or preferred stock that represents a claim on the company’s assets, only senior to that of common shares. In the case of a bankruptcy scenario, creditors to the company are paid back based on their hierarchy in the capital structure.

Holders of senior debt secured by a claim to assets of the company will be first in line, followed by junior/subordinated debt holders, followed by preferred stockholders, and finally those holding common stock. Because of this payout hierarchy, senior debt will have lower returns expectations relative to capital subordinated to it, with common shares having the highest returns expectations, holding all else equal.

In the case of ABS, where different assets are packaged and pooled into a single security, in the event of default of some securities, the ABS itself should still retain value, with senior tranches paid back before subordinated tranches.

Perpetual bonds – Bonds with no maturity date. Also known as perpetuities. These bonds issue coupon payments at regular intervals (normally every 6 or 12 months) and will do so into perpetuity. Some bonds that mature 100+ years in the future may also be labeled “perpetual” given their very long-term nature.

Government bonds – Bonds issued by a central government in developed markets are often termed “risk free” given they are backed by the credit of the government. Given the normally solid credit stature of these bonds, interest is generally lowest on these relative to other fixed income instruments. Moreover, given government agencies in developed economies run on fiat currency systems (i.e., not backed by a commodity generally considered of value, and has value by government decree), it is always expected that governments can pay their debt in nominal terms to avoid default if necessary, though potentially at the expense of inflation.

Callable bonds – Bonds that the issuer can call back from debtholders if interest rates fall to some stipulated extent. This is done under the premise that cheaper financing can be obtained in lieu of the more expensive bonds currently on the market. This gives issuers greater control over financing costs. However, investors will generally demand extra compensation for these due to the risk associated with these bonds being called.

Putable bonds – Bonds that can be put back to the issuer if interest rates rise to some degree. This limits interest rate risk on behalf of the investor. For the issuer, since they assume more interest rate risk, putable bonds are generally a cheaper source of financing.

 

Bond Trading for Day Traders

For day traders, the most convenient way to trade bonds is through their exchange-traded fund (ETF) equivalents. Bond ETFs follow an index that underlies the security and trades as an equity product.
These securities tend to be liquid and thus amenable for those pursuing an active trading style. Typical bond markets tend to be fairly illiquid or have high capital requirements in order to participate, which makes them non-ideal or off-limits for many traders.

These days, there is an ETF for all the main types of bonds – government, corporate, municipal, short-/medium-/long duration, investment grade, non-investment grade, emerging markets, developed markets, interest rate hedged, convertible, inflation-linked, variable rate, and mostly everything in between.

ETF trading is available at virtually all brokers that specialize in stocks trading.

 

Main Risks

There are two main risks to bonds: credit risk and interest rate risk.

 Credit Risk

Credit risk is derived from the potential that a bond issuer will not have the financial means to make principal and interest payment. Issuers, whether they be governments, corporate entities, or municipalities, are generally rated on their credit quality by assessing their cash flow metrics (and their stability) against their debt load.

 Interest Rate Risk

Interest rate risk boils down into two subcomponents: duration and convexity.
Duration is the amount of time it takes to reach breakeven on a fixed-income investment. The longer a bond’s duration, the greater its interest rate risk. Yields are inversely related to fixed-income bond prices. So as yields rise, prices decrease.

A better measure of interest rate risk, however, is convexity. Convexity is a measure of how duration changes with respect to changes in interest rates. Duration, as a risk management tool, operates under the assumption that changes in interest rates and bond yields is linear. In reality, the relationship is non-linear and best illustrated by convexity. The more curved the relationship between price and interest rate changes, the more inaccurate duration becomes as a risk measure.

Mathematically, duration is the first derivative of a bond’s price relative to interest rates. Convexity is the second derivative with respect to how a bond’s price changes relative to interest rates, or the first derivative with respect to how a bond’s duration changes relative to interest rates.

SAFE HAVEN ASSETS.

Safe haven assets are usually sought after by investors to limit their exposure to losses in the event of market downturns. There are times, such as during an economic recession, when the downturn of the market is prolonged. When the market enters such turbulent times the value of most investments falls
steeply. During these times, investors look to buy certain assets that are uncorrelated or negatively correlated to the general market. These types of assets are also known as “safe haven assets”. A safe haven therefore, is an asset that is expected to retain or increase in value during times of uncertainty or market turbulence.

 

Why is gold seen as the ultimate safe haven asset?

For many capital investors, gold is seen as a safer asset to buy and hold because it is a physical asset, meaning it can’t be printed like money – and so its value cannot be changed in this way. Because gold has historically maintained its value over time, it serves as a form of insurance against adverse economic events. Gold prices generally increase when extreme events occur. What is more, gold is negatively correlated to the U.S. dollar, a strong dollar makes bullion more expensive to buy and hold and therefore pushes gold prices lower and vice versa. At times when the USD is trading lower, investors tend to pile gold.

 

Other Safe-Havens:

Examples of other safe havens include defensive stocks, such as utility, healthcare, biotechnology, and consumer goods companies. These stocks tend to withstand recession because regardless of the state of the market, consumers are still going to purchase food, health products, and basic home supplies. There are also safe haven currencies such as the yen and the Swiss franc. The yen is seen as a safe haven due to its high trade surplus versus its debt, as well as its historic stability, while the Swiss franc’s recent scrapping of its cap versus the euro may make it easier to flee to in times of volatility.

 

How does this apply to Forex/CFD trading?

When it comes to Forex/CFD trading, it is important to remember investors do not buy and hold the actual asset, they are merely speculating on the asset’s price changes. Even so, it is important to know about these general market behaviours as they are also reflected on the price changes of certain assets. For example, at times when investors flock to buy gold, the price of XAUUSD edges higher and vice versa.

What it is worth remembering is that, while any assets that are seen as safe havens are appealing when a crisis is in process, there is really no guarantee that investors will always flock to buy certain assets. Remember, investments can go down as well as up and in the case of Forex/CFD trading, you need to ensure you understand the risks involved before investing.

Put-call Ratio

Put-call ratio (PCR) is an indicator commonly used to determine the mood of the options market. Being a contrarian indicator, the ratio looks at options buildup, helps traders understand whether a recent fall or rise in the market is excessive and if the time has come to take a contrarian call. The ratio is calculated either on the basis of options trading volumes or on the basis of options contracts on a given day or period.
One way to calculate PCR is by dividing the number of open interest in a Put contract by the number of open interest in Call option at the same strike price and expiry date on any given day.

PCR (OI) = Put open interest on a given day/Call open interest on the same day

It can also be calculated by dividing put trading volume by call trading volume on a given day.

PCR (Volume) = Put trading volume/call trading volume

PCR for marketwide positions can also be calculated by taking total number of OI for all open Call options and for all open Put options in a given series.


Description: A PCR ratio below 1 suggests that traders are buying more Call options than Put options. It signals that most market participants are betting on a likely bullish trend going forward. For contrarians, it is a signal to go against the wind.

On the flip side, if the ratio is higher than 1, it suggests traders are buying more Puts than Calls. Unlike Call options, Put options are not initiated just for directional call. They are bought also to hedge against any decline in the market.

The market sentiment is deemed excessively bearish when the PCR is at a relatively high level. But for contrarian investors, it suggests that the market may soon bottom out. On the other hand, when the ratio falls to a relatively low level, it is deemed excessively bullish. For contrarians, it would suggest a market top is in the making.

The PCR can be calculated for indices, individual stocks and for the derivative segment as a whole.

For example, suppose Nifty50 Put option at strike price 8,000 for December expiry saw a volume of 5,609 contracts on a day. Suppose further that Call volume on that day at the same strike price and same expiry stood at 88,220.

In this case, the PCR would be

5,609/88,220 = 0.06

Now suppose the Put open interest for the same expiry and strike price stands at 4,310,600 and Call open interest stands at 6,816,250.

The PCR in this case would be

4310600/6816250 =0.63 (See table above)

If the ratio is high in a falling market, it reflects how bearish the sentiment is. But a rise in the ratio in a rising market is considered a bullish signal.

Volatility index (VIX.)

The CBOE VIX uses the S&P 500 Index (SPX) options to capture the expected volatility for the next 30 days. The VIX is a great tool to determine the overall market sentiment and can be used as a tradable instrument.


The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)
is a market index used to measure the general volatility of the stock market as implied by the S&P 500 Index Options over time. It is calculated and published by the Chicago Board Options Exchange. Analysts and traders use it to predict how volatile the market is likely to be in the foreseeable future. As such, it has gained many trading names over time including ‘the fear index’, or simply ‘the VIX’ among others.

The VIX uses the S&P 500 Index (SPX) options to capture the expected volatility for the next 30 days. The index uses the two options expirations that have more than 23 days and less than 30 days to narrow down on the 30-day timeframe.

Trading the VIX

So clearly, it looks like trading the VIX would be pretty a simple task. However, as it turns out, you cannot directly trade the VIX. However, as expert traders at Engine forex point out, the two key extremes of the VIX are known ahead of time that makes it a lot more complicated than it visually appears to be. As such, traders try to trade the VIX by trading products that track the volatility index.

Therefore, the market has created various products that traders can use to capitalize on the opportunities created by tracking the VIX. Most of these are ETNs that allow traders to hedge using funds. Some of the notable ETNs in the market today include VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX Short-Term ETN (XIV) and the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX).

When using the VXX to hedge against market volatility, analysts and online trading experts seem to have a bias towards going long when they anticipate a market correction in the foreseeable future. This decision is usually taken when the VIX appears to bottom indicating that it cannot go any lower.
However, as many traders have found out, this theory does not hold when individual funds and ETNs are involved. Sometimes these have moved lower, even when the VIX appeared to have bottomed, which again illustrates the potential impact of trading an asset that tracks a predictive measure of market volatility.

Therefore, in order to understand better how to trade products that track market volatility, it is important to use a shorter timeframe, in this case, the Volatility Index pegged to short-term S&P 500 Index options, represented by the Mini SPX Index Options (XSP).

It is pretty much like using a narrower window to determine how volatile the market is likely to be for the next few weeks, which is likely to return more accurate results.

In general terms, the VIX has also been used to determine the overall market sentiment and views towards the economy. When the market has a bullish view on the economy, the VIX tends to rise as investors flock to the stock market to invest in capital assets.

This is very well demonstrated in the chart above. Starting in late January 2018 to early February 2018, the market experienced one of the sharpest bull-runs in a long time as speculation hit multi-year highs, and this can be seen on both the S&P 500 Index and the CBOE Volatility Index.

However, what followed shortly after was a period of low market volatility as normalcy returned with most of the investors having exhausted their investment capital. Since then the VIX has traded within what appears to be a tighter range and this indicates high levels of market stability. This is also backed by the steady rally in the market as demonstrated by the SPX.

In summary, the VIX predicts market volatility and due to its wider timeframe, it is hard to target the two extremes making it difficult to trade directly.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS.

To find the best technical indicators for your particular trading approach, test out a bunch of them singularly and then in combination. You may end up sticking with, say, four that are evergreen or you may switch off depending on the asset you're trading or the market conditions of the day.

Regardless of whether you're day-trading stocks, forex, or futures, it's often best to keep it simple when it comes to technical indicators. You may find you prefer looking at only a pair of indicators to suggest entry points and exit points. At most, use only one from each category of indicator to avoid unnecessary—and distracting—repetition.

 

 

Combining Day-Trading Indicators

Consider pairing up sets of two indicators on your price chart to help identify points to initiate and get out of a trade. For example, RSI and moving average convergence/divergence can be combined on the screen to suggest and reinforce a trading signal.1

The relative strength index (RSI) can suggest overbought or oversold conditions by measuring the price momentum of an asset. The indicator was created by J. Welles Wilder Jr., who suggested the momentum reaching 30 (on a scale of zero to 100) was a sign of an asset being oversold—and so a buying opportunity—and a 70 percent level was a sign of an asset being overbought—and so a selling or short-selling opportunity.2 Constance Brown, CMT, refined the use of the index and said the oversold level in an upward-trending market was actually much higher than 30 and the overbought level in a downward-trending market was much lower than 70.3

Using Wilder's levels, the asset price can continue to trend higher for some time while the RSI is indicating overbought, and vice versa. For that reason, RSI is best followed only when its signal conforms to the price trend: For example, look for bearish momentum signals when the price trend is bearish and ignore those signals when the price trend is bullish.

To more easily recognize those price trends, you can use the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) indicator.4 MACD consists of two chart lines. The MACD line is created by subtracting a 26-period exponential moving average (EMA) from a 12-period EMA. An EMA is the average price of an asset over a period of time only with the key difference that the most recent prices are given greater weighting than prices farther out.

The second line is the signal line and is a 9-period EMA. A bearish trend is signaled when the MACD line crosses below the signal line; a bullish trend is signaled when the MACD line crosses above the signal line.

 

 

Choosing Pairs

When selecting pairs, it's a good idea to choose one indicator that's considered a leading indicator (like RSI) and one that's a lagging indicator (like MACD). Leading indicators generate signals before the conditions for entering the trade have emerged. Lagging indicators generate signals after those conditions have appeared, so they can act as confirmation of leading indicators and can prevent you from trading on false signals.5

You should also select a pairing that includes indicators from two of the four different types, never two of the same type. The four types are trend (like MACD), momentum (like RSI), volatility, and volume.6 As their names suggest, volatility indicators are based on volatility in the asset's price, and volume indicators are based on trading volumes of the asset. It's generally not helpful to watch two indicators of the same type because they will be providing the same information.

 

Using Multiple Indicators

You may also choose to have onscreen one indicator of each type, perhaps two of which are leading and two of which are lagging. Multiple indicators can provide even more reinforcement of trading signals and can increase your chances of weeding out false signals.


Refining Indicators

Whatever indicators you chart, be sure to analyze them and take notes on their effectiveness over time. Ask yourself: What are an indicator's drawbacks? Does it produce many false signals? Does it fail to signal, resulting in missed opportunities? Does it signal too early (more likely of a leading indicator) or too late (more likely of a lagging one?)

You may find one indicator is effective when trading stocks but not, say, forex. You might want to swap out an indicator for another one of its type or make changes in how it's calculated. Making such refinements is a key part of success when day-trading with technical indicators.

What is Futures trading?

Futures represent an agreement to buy or sell a specific quantity of a stock, security, or commodity at a set price on a specified date in the future. Short for "futures contracts," these agreements are legally binding and must be fulfilled either by physical delivery or cash settlement.

Many different commodities, currencies, and indexes are traded in futures, offering traders a wide array of products. Since futures contracts can be bought and re-sold any time the market is open up until the fulfillment date, they are a popular product among day traders.

Here's what futures contracts are, how they work, and what you need to start trading them.

 

 What Are Futures?

Futures markets trade futures contracts. A futures contract is an agreement between a buyer and seller of the contract that some asset—such as a commodity, currency, or stock—will be bought or sold for a specific price, on a specific day in the future (the expiration date).1

Futures trading is especially common with commodities. For example, if someone buys a July crude oil futures contract (CL), they are saying they will buy 1,000 barrels of oil from the agreed price upon the July expiration, regardless of the market price at that time. The seller is likewise agreeing to sell those 1,000 barrels of oil at the agreed-upon price. Unless either trades their contract to another buyer or seller by that date, then the original seller will deliver 1,000 barrels of crude oil to the original buyer.

These trades aren't confined to commodities, however. Traders buy futures of stock in companies, foreign currency exchanges, index funds, and more. Regardless of the product being traded, both the buyer and the seller of a futures contract are obligated to fulfill its requirements at the end of the contract term.2

  • Alternate name: Futures contracts

 

 Popular Futures Markets and Symbols

Futures contracts are traded on a futures exchange, such as the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) or Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). Popular index futures, currency futures, and commodity-related contracts include the following examples, all traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME):
  • E-mini S&P 500 (ES) index futures
  • E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) futures
  • Euro to U.S. dollar (6E) futures
  • British pound to U.S. dollar (6B) futures
  • 100 troy ounces gold (GC) futures
  • 5,000 troy ounces silver (SI) futures
  • 1,000 barrels crude oil (CL) futures
The symbol for the contracts is followed by another letter and number. The letter represents the month the futures contract expires, and the number represents the year of expiration. For example, ES contracts expire in March (code H), June (M), September (U), and December (Z).3 For example, an ES contract that expired in December of 2019 would have had a symbol like this: ESZ9. Some brokers and chart platforms may show the last two digits for the year (ESZ19).

The expiration date of a futures contract is the final day that you can trade the contract. Otherwise, it will be settled in cash or physical delivery. This expiration date varies by contract but usually occurs on the third Friday of the settlement month.4

 

How Futures Contracts Move

The price of futures contracts is constantly in motion. A tick is the minimum price fluctuation a futures contract can make at any given moment in the day. The tick size varies by the futures contract being traded. For example, crude oil (CL) moves in $0.01 increments (tick size), while the E-mini S&P 500 (ES) moves in $0.25 increments.5

Each tick of movement represents a monetary gain or loss to the trader holding a futures contract. How much each tick is worth is called the tick value, and this varies by contract. For example, a tick in a crude oil contract (CL) is $10 per contract, while a tick of movement in the E-mini S&P 500 (ES) is worth $12.50 per contract.

To find out the tick size and the tick value of a futures contract, read the contract specifications, as published on the exchange on which the futures contract trades. 

 

Day Trading Futures

Although much of futures market trading is done by those actually doing business with the commodities involved, it is also a major market for long-term speculators and day traders.

Day traders don't trade futures contracts with the intent of actually taking possession of (if buying) or distributing (if selling), say, physical barrels of oil. Rather, day traders make money on the price fluctuations that occur after taking a trade, by means of a cash settlement agreement, where money exchanges hands instead of goods. For example, if a day trader buys a natural gas futures contract (NG) at $2.065, and sells it later in the day for $2.105, they made a profit.

 

Fees and Capital Required for Day Trading Futures

Trading a futures contract requires the use of a broker. The broker will charge a fee for the trade, called a commission. Unlike stocks, futures day traders aren't required to have $25,000 in their trading account. Rather, they are only required to have an adequate day trading margin for the contract they are trading (some brokers demand a minimum account balance greater than the required margin).6

Margin is the amount a trader must have in their account to initiate a trade. Margins vary by contract and broker. Check with your broker to see how much capital they require to open a futures account ($1,000 or more is typical), then check what their margin requirements are for the futures contract you want to trade. This will let you know the bare minimum of capital needed. However, you might want to trade with more than the bare minimum you need, to accommodate for losing trades and the price fluctuations that occur while holding a futures position.

Futures can be highly volatile and risky for day trading. If you don't have capital that you can stand to lose, reconsider trading futures. Always evaluate your risk tolerance before investing.

 

  • Futures contracts represent an agreement to buy or sell a commodity, stock, or other security at the agreed-upon price on a set expiration date.
  • They can be bought or sold repeatedly until the expiration date, at which point they will fulfill with cash or physical delivery of goods.
  • Futures contracts are a way for supply chain actors to hedge against changes in market prices on goods, as well as a way that long-term investors and day traders can profit from these fluctuations.
  • Day traders can profit greatly from futures trading, but the risks are substantial.

 

Futures vs. Options

One way that traders can manage risk on the futures market is by buying futures options instead of outright futures contracts. These options only execute if the market meets certain conditions.

For example, a trader might buy an option to purchase crude oil stock if it rises to $40 per share (this is the strike price). If the stock is currently trading at $38, then nothing will happen unless it hits $40. Let's say a drop in supply causes crude oil to rise to $45. At that point, the investor could exercise
their option to purchase shares for $40, then sell them at $45 and make a $5-per-share profit.



Futures Contract Futures Option
Represents an obligation to buy or sell at the contracted price on the specified future date Represents an option to buy or sell, but no obligation
Contract can be bought or sold repeatedly until the expiration date Costs a premium
After the expiration date, contract is fulfilled with cash payment or physical delivery of goods Only executes if the strike price is met before the expiration date
More riskyLess risky